Are We Seeing a Rotation or Early Signs of Sizable Pullback?

  • March 3, 2021 11:43 PM PST
    This week, were looking for the battle to continue between tech-led
    growth stocks and cyclicals or companies that are usually affected by
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      “When the economy is roaring, they‘re roaring. When the economy is
    weakening, they’re weakening,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment
    strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “The economy will roar, at
    least for a period of time. Theres huge pent-up demand, whether just for
    travel or going back to work.”



      Strong earnings, progress in vaccination rollouts and hopes of a $1.9
    trillion federal coronavirus relief package is expected to continue to
    provide support, but some feel the equities face some headwinds.



      Bank of America expects a more than 10% pullback in stocks, which are
    trading at more than 22 times 12-month forward earnings, the most
    expensive since the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.



      Some see a little time before the next sizable pullback. Peter
    Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New
    York said, “What we saw (last week) represents a market that is tired
    and may not do very much. So we are headed for some sort of a pullback,
    but I don‘t think we’re there just yet.”



      Last Weeks Recap



      The major U.S. stock indexes finished mixed on Friday as investors
    continued their rotation by selling technology shares that have rallied
    through the pandemic and moving into cyclical stocks set to benefit from
    pent-up demand once the coronavirus pandemic is subdued.



      Cash Market Performance



      In the cash market on Friday, the benchmark S&P 500 Index settled
    at 3906.71, down 7.26 or -0.19%. The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial
    Average finished at 31494.32, up 0.98 or -0.00% and the
    technology-driven NASDAQ Composite Index closed at 13874.46, up 9.10 or
    +0.07%.Value stocks rose 0.6% while growth fell 0.6%. Industrials led
    rising sectors in the S&P 500, spurred by a 9.9% surge in Deere
    & Co and Caterpillars 5.0% gain to an all-time peak of $211.40 a
    share. Financials, materials and energy, along with industrials, rose
    more than 1%. The S&P 1500 airlines index jumped 3.5%, with
    post-pandemic travel in focus.



      The stay-at-home winners, including Microsoft Corp, Facebook Inc,
    Alphabets Google and Netflix Inc, fell in a trend seen for most of the
    week. Amazon.com Inc also fell, as investors sold the leaders in the big
    rally since last March.



      Applied Materials Inc was among the top boosts to both the NASDAQ and
    the S&P 500, rising 5.3% to $119.46, after it forecast
    second-quarter revenue above market expectations. Demand its
    semiconductor manufacturing tools has picked up during a global shortage
    of semiconductors.



      Deere raised its 2021 earnings forecast. Deere reported profit more
    than doubled in the first quarter on rising demand for farm and
    construction machinery.