Euro 1Q 2021 Forecast

  • January 6, 2021 6:09 AM PST
    The European Central Bank has made clear that it does not want to see
    EUR/USD above the 1.20 mark, once seen as its “line in the sand” for the
    pair, because of the negative impact of a strong Euro on both the
    Eurozones competitive trade position and its inflation rate. Yet it is
    hard to see what it can actually do about it now the pair is above that
    level, and that suggests further strength in EUR/USD in the weeks
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      A clear target for EUR/USD bulls is the 1.25 level last reached in
    February 2018 and there is no fundamental reason why that should not be
    challenged even if the ECB tries hard to subdue the Euro to lift the
    Eurozones inflation rate. After all, direct intervention in the foreign
    exchanges is highly unlikely.

      For sure, the ECB could ease Eurozone monetary policy still further in
    the first few months of 2021 to counter the impact on the economy of
    the coronavirus pandemic, and in the past that might have weakened the
    Euro. However the correlation between monetary policy and the level of
    the currency seems to have broken down recently so further monetary
    measures will likely fail to bring the Euro down.