China's economic recovery gathered pace in the third quarter, according
to an AFP poll of analysts, with consumer spending gradually picking up
as coronavirus fears eased, helping a wider rebound spurred by
investment and exports.To get more
latest china economy news, you can visit shine news official website.
Growth
in July-September is expected to come in at 5.2 percent when official
data is released Monday, bringing the world's second-largest economy
closer to last year's 6.1 percent annual expansion, even as countries
around the world struggle to contain the deadly pandemic.
With
the virus now largely under control in China, most social distancing
measures have been removed -- and consumers have streamed back into
restaurants and malls, hopped on flights and trains for domestic
holidays and packed tourist districts.
AFP's survey, involving
analysts from 13 institutions, also forecast full-year growth of 2.3
percent, slightly above the International Monetary Fund's forecast,
which tagged China as the only major economy likely to expand this year.
"China's
stimulus has differed from that of much of the region with its focus on
the industrial sector and construction, rather than for small and
medium-sized enterprises or direct payments to the unemployed," said
Moody's Analytics economist Xu Xiaochun.Thus, China's rapid recovery is
led by goods-producing industries and export shipments."
Nathan
Chow of DBS Bank added that the biggest boost came from investments,
especially those driven by the government, while overseas demand has
also improved.
While consumer spending has lagged behind, it is
catching up "at least among middle- and upper-income households", and
retail sales are nearing their levels of late 2019, Xu said.But
economists maintained that growth will be modest and driven mostly by
production rather than services, adding that lingering uncertainty has
led to an increase in savings.
HSBC analysts added in a recent
report that China's recovery has been "highly uneven", stressing a
rebound in the private sector will be "essential for a sustainable
economic recovery".
Economists warned, however, that a sharp
rebound is unlikely for Chinese consumer demand given the anxiety
surrounding the coronavirus, while global tensions are also weighing on
the external market.Tommy Wu, lead economist at Oxford Economics, said
analysts are still "waiting for signs of a more significant improvement
in employment, which will underpin consumption".
Consumers will
remain wary about buying large amounts of goods and services during
economic uncertainty, while "the external market is not likely to help
the Chinese economy either", said Raphie Hayat, senior economist at
Rabobank.
"China's tensions with several countries are
increasing, while some of its trading partners are experiencing second
wave outbreaks of the virus."
This could boost certain exports
such as protective equipment and electronics but the effect will "likely
be more than offset by generally weaker external demand", he added.
